Thursday, June 6, 2013

A Bit of "Box-mapping"

A couple of days ago, the 4 English Madoka Magica boxes I preordered arrived in the mail.
I opened them up, but kept careful track of what each rare was and where in the box it was. I put all of that in a spreadsheet so I could look for patterns.

Let's get into the numbers:
Total Rare or higher: 80 (of course, since I opened 80 boosters)
R: 60
RR: 16
SR: 2
RRR: 1
SP (signed): 1
Even at a glance, this all fits perfectly within the predicted pattern, but I got lucky with the SP, since they are about 1 per 8 boxes.
Also, as predicted, I got exactly 8 of each Climax Common in the set, and 4 of each Climax Rare.

Here's where the cards were in the boxes (Pack 1 is the front of the box, 20 is the back):
This isn't a big enough sample size to be sure, but it certainly looks like there are a few overlapping patterns:
  • RRs occur in or near packs 4, 8, 14, and 18.
  • SRs can be near RRs, but don't replace them.
  • The RRR seems to have pushed the RR that should have been there away. With only 1 RRR, we can't really make any assumptions about its pattern.
  • The SP was the last pack in the box, but with just 1, we can't tell much.
  • There are dead zones of only Rares in packs 1, 5, 6, 9-11, 13, and 16.
  • All the SR, RRR, and SPs are in the back half of the box.
With that data, I'm going to conclude that the back half of the box is the best bet for rarer cards, and that packs 10 and 11 are the least likely to have RR or better.

I do admit this isn't enough information to know anything for sure, but with more data we could see the trends better. Did you open any boxes and keep track of their order? Are you opening any boxes soon and want to record the order? If so, let me know and we can learn more together!

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